Summary of Top 10 Predictions for KLIC:
There continues to be a lot of bewilderment on this thread regarding KLIC. Strange, because everything is unfolding in crystal clear fashion to me. Unfortunately, no one seems to have listened to anything I said. Now may be a good time to look back at my predictions. The accuracy seems uncanny. I list them in rough chronological order.
(1) Way back in early April, before "top" was on anyone's minds, I first brought up the possibility.
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(2) Prediction (May, 2000) : KLIC will not reach it's high of $87 again (pre-split).
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(3) Prediction: Small insider selling is usually insignificant and meaningless. But the heavy insider selling seen in April/May is a bad sign.
Outcome: Been very, very ugly since the insider sells.
(4) Prediction: Analysts would be useless.
Outcome: No word from the analysts during the sickening, 4 month, 65% drop. THEN the downgrades come out at $15. Nice job, guys.
(5) Prediction: A low P/E will not lift KLIC stock.
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Outcome: The P/E ratio has been very low, and getting lower. It hasn't done squat for the stock, as predicted. Savvy investors completely ignore P/E for cyclical stocks.
(6) Prediction: On May 26, I urged everyone to buy SDLI.
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Outcome: Since that date, it rocketed 200 points, before pulling back in the current downslide.
(7) Prediction: On July 5, I predicted analyst downgrades and downward revisions of earnings estimates were coming
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Outcome: They came out in droves in August, exactly as predicted.
(8) Prediction: A few days before the last earnings report in July, I predicted record numbers, but they would be completely ignored by Wall Street because of concerns of slowing growth
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Outcome: All of you were bewildered when the record earnings did nothing for the stock. I wasn't.
(9) I predicted that one might make a few bucks daytrading KLIC, but it will not make a sustained move upwards
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(10) Finally, that leaves the Mother of All Predictions: The top will occur in calendar year 2000. By top, I mean peak in quarterly revenue for KLIC. They have already gone on record as saying the next 2 quarters will not match the numbers posted in the July quarter. So right now, the peak is July, 2000. We'll just have to wait and see how this unfolds.
However, check out this comment from Salomon Smith Barney on Intel today: downgrades to OUTPERFORM from BUY as the result of growing concerns over a rapid capacity build in a time of weaker demand and likely competitive pricing pressure in Q4 and next year
Of course, you will all be bailed out one day. During the next cycle upturn, KLIC will make all time new highs. However, I'm guessing it will be several quarters away, possibly even a couple of years. The opportunity costs are staggering. |
