Different take---- in '92, Bush would have won except for one thing: he could not hold Evangelicals at the percentages that Ronald Reagan had. Clinton knocked off just enough white southern Evangelical voters, with his Bible thumping and claim to be an habitue of revival meetings, that he gained key southern states. I watched the exit polls into the wee hours, and pored over them in the paper the next day. State after state kept turning on the fact that evangelicals were pulled away.
In '96, married people (no racial breakdown) voted predominantly for Dole. There is a lot of appeal, in that group, to the family values message. Also, most age quintiles voted for Dole. The weakness that turned the trick was among seniors and very young voters, who also make up most of the unmarrieds. For seniors, the main thing was playing on their fears about Social Security and Medicare. For youngsters, the main thing was the impression that Clinton was cooler than Dole. Since Dole was not notably identified with the Religious Right, that was not a big factor. |
