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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go?
EMC 29.050.0%Sep 15 5:00 PM EST
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To: VFD who wrote (11197)9/22/2000 2:07:43 PM
From: Bill Fischofer  Read Replies (2) of 17183
 
OT: Wintel

With apologies to Mark Twain, reports of Wintel's death are greatly exaggerated. The market got very complacent a few weeks back and realized it needed a traditional Fall panic to get back on an even keel. INTC simply provided the trigger for this morning's selling climax but if INTC were not available some other trigger would have been found.

If you look at what INTC actually said as opposed to what the merchants of fear in the media would have you believe, this 'shortfall' is pretty modest and is largely due to a confluence of three factors: (1) normal seasonal weakness, (2) a soft Euro, and (3) the Pentium 4 transition. The last reason has been given almost no play in the press but this sort of dip occurs like clockwork every time there is a cutover to a new Pentium model. A lot of folks who would buy a Pentium III system today will simply wait and buy a Pentium 4 system next month when it debuts. The exact same thing happened in each of the last several transitions. What's different this time is that it was seized upon as the trigger for a panic, which is why INTC is enjoying a 30% tag sale instead of perhaps a more normal 15%. As for the longer term, I'm quite confident that computers are here to stay and that INTC will still be powering whatever we're running in 2005 and beyond, and I have no intention of selling my shares.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Euro has bottomed and Oil has peaked. While institutional money managers panic in an effort to "save" their 3rd quarter numbers (and perhaps their jobs) individual investors are being presented with yet another opportunity to bargain hunt ahead of the next upswing.
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