Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony,

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Rick Buskey who wrote (59514)	9/22/2000 3:41:49 PM
From: Fundamentls	of 122087

Still in MANU. Looking at the Talus deal, they must have been starstruck. There is no way Talus is worth $366 million, although it's a very good company. I've watched Talus a long time, and have done estimates of revenue and earnings for competitors and potential buyers. My revenue estimate for on the money was right on the money (the reported $40 mil), my profit estimate (which can't be validated from the PR) was $4-6 million after tax. That works out to a P/E ratio in the range of 60-90. Talus is the giant in its industry and is growing only with thie industry, about 15-20% per year by my estimates (which are based on employee counts, pretty reliable for a consulting business). The revenue maximization industry is not fully mature but well along its development path in the largest end-user markets. It's hard to see them growing much faster than that over the next 5-10 years especially since most of their revenue base is highly technical consulting services in a maturing market. I think Talus was probably worth $100 million, $125 tops. A far cry from the $366 million MANU is paying. When we do see the financials I may have reason to adjust those estimates upwards, but I don't see how we could ever get to $366 million without far more robust growth than Talus has had. MANU might go up a bit more, but sooner or later it's gonna get stomped. This was a great deal for Bob Cross, Dean Boyd, and the other Talus founders and shareholders, but not great for MANU holders. Regards, Fund

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next