There seems to be a concerted effort by a large number of analysts, reporters, etc, over the past several months to convince everyone that this semi-cycle is over and we must wait for a new one to appear. So far they have been able to convince the "market", but I wonder how long they can continue to play their game before the "market" wakes up?
The fact that the August bookings number was an increase over July is a very strong indication of an extremely healthy market for semis. Your chart shows that in the previous 2 years, 1998 and 1999, the booking numbers for the summer months were declining rapidly for 1998, and relatively steady for 1999, while this year there has been substantial month to month increases. I submit it would be almost impossible to concoct a stronger scenario for increasing semiconductor demand than exists today. No sign of slowing down at all!!
The "knockdown" of the semi market was orchestrated early this summer and has continued until the present day - the latest person designated to "beat the drum" is Tia-min Pang. Also Glen Yeung of SSB had to point out that ``The Intel pre-announcement increases our concern that end-market demand is weak and also increases the potential for equipment pushouts from the world's largest capital spender,''
What they fail to point out is that, in accordance with rough numbers from your chart, bookings in August of 1998, 1999 and 2000 were 400M, 1.5B and 3B respectively. Also, August was the first month ever for a better than 3B order number. Does that look like growth is "slowing down"? I don't know what planet the negative naysayers are living on, but it is obvious they have a game plan to keep the semis down until it is "the right time" to start the new semi-cycle. |
