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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa
KLIC 57.55-2.7%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4307)9/22/2000 9:48:21 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 5482
 
Donald,
I look at it as "interrupting the cycle" for a different reason than the previous cycles. In the prior cycles, the top of the cycle happened when the outlook turned bad, which was followed through with a tremendous contraction of bookings.


Even though it is the summer slow season, the semi manufacturers are digesting their new purchases, and there is a bottle-neck in the supply of lenses for lithography tools, we are still seeing rising bookings. On top of the record order rates, the foundries are still tapped out well into '02. Anyone who takes any amount of time to read or listen to execs from TSMC or UMC could see this clear as day.

One more thing to mention about cycles ending. We typically see stock splits in all names in the sector. Currently however, many names are trading one-half of where they were during the last cycle, without ever splitting during this one(PRIA 60 old high and 22 currently; EGLS 36 old high and 18 currently; CYMI 49 old high and 33 currently). The list goes on and on. If this is a true upcycle, shouldn't a rising tide lift all boats? These are companies which dominate their niches yet have seen little appreciation in price and no splits to date during the current cycle. We should start a stock split indicator along with the BTB:-)

Brian
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