GST--I have looked at dozens of tech threads in the last 24 hours. Yours and Eric posts stand in contrast to most everything i have seen. Are 95% of investors in a state of denial? Did noone see Kumar, who reads intel as well as anyone, summarily dismiss the notion that intc's woes were purely euro? he said (something like)...if europe represents a relatively small % of intc's total production...how could it wreck revenues like it has. he said we were seeing evidence of a global downturn in computer sales. the notion that intc is going to quickly bounce back...that a "downturn" will abruptly reverse...or the idea that intc (and their revenue reversal) is an anomaly----these notions are not consistent with trends we normally find in business.
GST, as for the "passing of the baton" theory...from "box dinosaurs" like intc, dell, msft--You and i know that a downturn in chip sales has precious little to do with storage (emc/ntap) or telcom infra (q,jdsu) BUT, in the past, the market has not seen it that way. Based on yesterday's euphoric reaction, Eric jokes that "intc should warn more often"...but what will it be like if another mega-tech warns in the next 2 weeks?...whether pmcs or dell or csco (merely examples from various areas)--if we got another warning or 2 from one of these--compounding intc's warning, wouldn't things get real ugly?
even in the absence of further warnings...on the strength of kumar's comments alone, doesn't it seem likely we're heading out of mass denial...that we're down to seeds and stems? as for slick willie's oil band aid & euro aid--shouldn't these measures, particularly as they were taken on the same day, be seen as negatives?.
GST--believe it or not but i am as bullish as they come on tech with 100% of my money in q, rmbs, glw, cien, ntap, amcc, jnpr, extr...etc. i sense from your posts that you are no bear--but that you are confused...as i am, with the optimism that permeates 90% of yesterday evening's SI posts.
i did (for the first time in 3 years) sell have my positions in the 401(k). Just once i'd like to have some dry powder.
What are your thoughts...1)is it ignorant to think that intc's weakness will dampen the performance of my above listed holdings? 2)are intc's troubles possibly confined to europe & can they reverse rev trend in a quarter or 2? |
