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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.17-1.4%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (37412)9/23/2000 8:19:08 AM
From: w0z  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
"There WAS flattening last summer - followed by steepening."

In fact this has been true for every year in your chart with the sole exception of 96, when it may have been masked by other factors. This is probably normal seasonality caused in this industry by things like capital expenditure approval cycles, summer vacation in Europe, etc. "Hot" capex needs get allocated early in the year...followed by a summer lull...and then current fiscal year money must be spent before the new fiscal year begins. Having worked in the capital equipment industry (Test & Measurement) for 27 years, I can tell you that this is the typical seasonality pattern I saw.

Haven't we had this discussion before and you plotted the data in a year-to-year growth chart? ...i.e. you take the 3 month moving average of '00 orders divided by the same average for '99 orders. If you do this, it will remove most seasonality effects.

Everyone is trying to second guess the inflection points but may be getting false triggers based on seasonality issues. As someone once said, the stock market has successfully predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions! We may be going through something similar with current predictions of the end of the semi-cycle...only time will tell.
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