SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (21055)9/23/2000 12:25:57 PM
From: Archie Meeties  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
My guess is that the net effect of SPR release is an addition of 30mill barrels of refined product in Europe. Oil or refined products that would flow here will instead be diverted to Europe, which in turn will be able to contribute to our HO imports mid winter.

I think crude will stay range bound for the next 3 months and the markets (both the oil and the bond market) will try to discount this winter as just a transient problem. It won't become clear that it's a problem that's here to stay until the 3rd and 4th draw from the SPR (which are pretty much inevitable). In the meantime, I'm covering my shorts next week or maybe the week after (I think there's a bit more giving to do) and growing a pair of horns.

The inflationary threat to the economy - which was the only cause for my bearishness - will be contained come hell or high water through the use of the SPR. The big move up in the JOC-ERCI data recently was almost entirely due to energy, and supported both my bullishness for gold and bearish for equities. It should reverse.

Gore may continue to release oil for the next 2 years while at the same time trying to speed the transition to a less oil dependent transportation infrastructure. It's not as if he cares a whit about the oil industry (except OXY, of course).

What is gone is any impetus for OPEC to officially raise quotas. On the other hand, I don't expect any members to cut back production as they see the price decline. They might say that they will, but they've been exceeding their quotas all year long - those that can.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News