How about the following back-of-the-envelop evaluation for the worth of a PFG share:-
Assuming
POG = US$250 per oz or C$375 (rather than US$320 or C$480),
# of oz. of gold mineable = 3 million (rather than 3.67 million)
And considering only 20% of the total worth of the gold in the ground we get,
$0.2x375x3,000,000 = $225,000,000.
Subtracting off $25,000,000 gives $200,000,000.
Dividing this by the total number of shares, fully diluted
gives ($200,000,000)/(28,000,000) = $7.14
By the way, if the cash in hand plus whatever funds PFG have expended so far are factored in, the price per share would be higher.
If the POG goes to US$600 (which according to GATA should be the normal equilibrium POG) or C$900, then the price per share should be at least $7.14 x (900/375) = $17.14.
(The articles at gold-eagle.com suggest that conditions are ripe for a resurgence in the gold price.)
Thus PFG is a highly undervalued stock or so it would seem. Don't forget that yet more gold is likely to be found, and 4 initial disappointing holes do not a entire drill program make.
Rightly or wrongly, I am inclined to believe that some naysayers are folks trying to "psych" other shareholders into selling their stock so that more shares will become available for shorting.
The recent nosedive in the value of PFG, I suspect, was due to brokerage houses and financing groups and related parties taking profits: they had bought the stock low and they sold high recently. Collusion is a dirty word, but it is an apt label for the recent PFG nosedive. |
