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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 233.23+1.8%12:59 PM EST
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To: Catcher who wrote (108857)9/23/2000 2:16:32 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
Catcher: "but what will it be like if another mega-tech warns in the next 2 weeks?" I think you make some good points. INTC has its own problems -- BUT -- it is likely to be the first, and not the last, mega tech warning. Here is the issue:

Is there or is there not a broad, significant slowdown taking shape in the global economy?

In my view there are many contributing factors -- and I emphasize oil in part because there is a very, very strong statistical correlation to business cycles. The very good years we had are partly do to cheap oil, and now, with oil pinching the economy, oil is contributing to a global slowdown. But it is not the only factor. There is interest rates. There is the circular cause-effect of the slowdown on the stock market -- a removal of the wealth effect. There is Japan, which can't seem to reform itself out of a wet paper bag. There is Europe with their stupid Euro and very inflexble labor markets and laws. Etc., etc. etc.

But it all comes back to this -- are we heading into a slowdown so severe that corporate profits are going to be worse than expected at least for the next year????? If the answer is even a strong "maybe", then it will pay to have dry powder (cash), because the market is priced as if growth is not at risk.

Take care.
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