Lucent's Poor ATM Numbers Confirmed
SEPTEMBER 22, 2000
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Light Reading has taken some heat in the past week for publishing figures from Infonetics Research Inc., which showed that Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU) lost ground in the ATM switch market in the second quarter of this year (see Lucent Losing Grip on ATM Core? )
In particular, we were criticized for not following up on Lucent's claim that research from other analysts, notably Cahners In-Stat Group, painted an entirely different picture. Cahners' figures, Lucent said, showed Lucent's market share growing while that of its main rival, Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE/Toronto: NT), was shrinking.
So, we've followed up, not just with Cahners but with a couple of other market research companies as well -- The Dell'Oro Group, and Synergy Research Inc.
Guess what? All three analysts back Infonetics' general conclusion -- that Lucent had a lousy second quarter in the ATM switch market. However, that might not mean that much. Year-on-year figures are much more significant, according to analysts; but those also show Lucent losing market share, albeit at not such an alarming rate.
Let's start by looking at the quarterly figures that got Light Reading into hot water with some readers.
Lucent, it turns out, was quoting Cahners' figures for the first quarter, not the second quarter.
It's easy to see why. Lucent had a great first quarter, but it may be the result of some creative accounting, according to Dell'Oro's president, Tam Dell'Oro. "We think some of the sales in the second quarter were shifted into the first quarter," she said at a recent conference that Light Reading was chairing. "It's just someone monkeying with the numbers."
In other words, Lucent's second quarter figures may not be as bad as they look, just as its first quarter figures may not be as good as they look. That certainly jibes with Dell'Oro's numbers:
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