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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 92.72+5.2%Nov 24 3:59 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (54827)9/23/2000 4:09:01 PM
From: NightOwl  Read Replies (2) of 93625
 
Zeev,

I believe that within the next six weeks the $buss will once more be above $100. The news that will catapult the stock is not known to us "small investors", yet, but someone knows something we do not know (it is always the case) and is acting upon it with real money.

Granted someone knows something we do not know, but we do know that RMBS will be filing Answers to the MU and Hyundai suits in this six week time frame.

One of the fuzzy "facts" we don't know is whether a MU settlement is or is not going to be done. I have tried to find a basis for settlement between these two. But I don't see one in their public statements to date.

So far, it seems that the increasing cost of litigation is insufficient to wet either side's appetite for doing a deal. RMBS has upped the ante by putting the European market at risk. This is a huge change in the "rules" of this game. But thus far it has had little effect.

I believe we also know that RMBS has filed an ITC complaint against Hyundai but not Infineon. I assume that we might see such a suit initiated at some point; or possibly an Infineon settlement. But still the MU suit will be sitting there and we do know that it doesn't depend upon the invalidity of RMBS patents for its causes of action.

It seems clear that one or more of our players is "bluffing". RMBS has definitely raised MU's "bet", and it didn't even wait for its "turn" to announce it. After RMBS files its "official" Answer things should start popping.

It would appear that MU has to decide whether or not to seek an order in its suit to prevent RMBS from pursuing its IP against MU in ancillary cases, or to raise similar misrepresentation claims in the European suits.

If it does neither of these things, I'd have to assume they are seriously talking settlement. In the end, I don't see MU settling their suit, unless they have a fairly secure plan for evading RMBS IP before the next down cycle.

This is definitely NOT one of those shake hands and live happily ever after spats. But it may well be that they'll take a breather between rounds.

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