JW (and dealer):
Yes, thanks, bland has bookmarked the link, and will be paying much closer attention to it himself in the future. Many of us on Yahoo were aware in January and February that evaporating liquidity was going to cause us some imminent problems, but we were all too flush with overconfidence to act quickly, decisively, or ascetically enough.
Bland
btw, here's a pretty good analysis of the significance of Friday's action from the RFMD board on Yahoo:
bc_4_rfmd: Basis & Rational of Bottom..
by: bigbucks_usa
9/23/00 4:44 pm
Msg: 50650 of 50673
Actually your attempt is sincere and so you are forgiven. However you are not paraphrasing. To retrace how and why I have highlighted some earlier posts. Much earlier I had a post messages.yahoo.com
Showing that due to three T/A signals the 3,800 region was where we should stop on a Naz downdraft. In a more recent post I revised that 3800 downward to the old August lows and left the chances at seeing something between 3700 and 3800 not being sure of exactly where.
That prediction/analysis would have been close to 100% correct except for the unforeseen INTC earnings announcement. That event then allowed for a new lowered target as seen in the following post messages.yahoo.com
This analysis indicated a 200-point drop and an open at 3615. The market opened less than a point away. So there’s the history! Now if you go back some 4-6 weeks, the hot topic then was about my fear that the VIX was at historical lows. Thus showing that the market COULD experience further downside, which it did.
To show that the bottom had been in place I needed to see the VIX rise, the P/C ratio change and a high volume on the Naz of above 1.6 to 1.8 billion shares. High VOLUME is a good proxy for Institutions. Hence when I saw the above three and a reversal on the Naz of 3614 to 3801, a 187-point move to the UPSIDE (even though the Naz closed negative) I was convinced the bottom was in.
As I jokingly wrote to LadyFall that we needed more Fear, I was referring to fear measured by the VIX. The VIX hit a high of 27.04. The 200 DEMA for the VIX is 24.2. So we definitely had people worried and that’s a CONTRARIAN indicator for bullishness.
So in summary I called a bottom in place for all of the following reasons:
(1) High VIX showing bullishness ahead
(2) TRIN measurements
(3) High NAZ Volume
(4) High reversal AFTER negative news re INTC
(5) High Volume on Dow too
(6) High P/C Volume ratios
(7) CSCO above 200 DEMa
(8) Naz composite above 200 DEMA (after dropping way lower)
(9) DOW above 200 DEMA (after dropping way lower)
(10) The Euro
(11) A 100% chance of Fed Funds Futures showing a 25 BP decrease at the FOMC in March and a 25% chance of a decrease in January
(12) Oil down TEMPORARILY, 30 MM BBLS is a token we need 500-800 MM more. But the politico/psychological gesture has dropped the OSX temporarily.
(13) JNPR, SEBL, and ITWO are now ready or have made new 52-week highs. A market needs new leaders. All the ones breaking out over 52 week highs ARE the NEW Generals.
(14) Negative pre-announcements by First-Call are actually within historical boundaries and hence all the negative hysteria is for the doomsayers and perpetual losers.
(15) The 30-year Treasury Bond yield has bounced of its 200 DEMA and is headed lower. Lower rates are GREAT for stocks.
(16) Abby Joseph-Cohen, PaineWebber and 10 other brokerage houses now concur that the S&P is UNDERVALUED BY 10% or more. Some think that it’s undervalued even more. Don’t let bashers and pathetic losers tell you any different.
High VIX readings by the way need at least two or more days of fear so we may have two more days of weakness. And finally if you don’t believe me, the economy or the greatness of our country see (S&P) Cherney who confirms my take at personalwealth.com
Regards,
Big$$$ |
