How does the future price movement appear to you...
I think I've discredited myself sufficiently for this, and the next few years, on this thread with my profoundly inaccurate MSFT predictions, so I'm not about to risk further damage to my already poor track record.
However, I have noticed that MSFT has been in the narrowest of price ranges for several weeks new. In fact, this is the longest and narrowest price range I've witnessed since I first purchased my MSFT position in 1989. I've also observed that when MSFT's stock price acts in this way, the appreciation which follows the quiet period has always been spectacular. If today's investor believes that history repeats itself, possibly because investing is a human activity and humans change very little over time, then they are reasonable to expect stellar rewards for their patience. If, on the other hand, today's investor interprets the evidence at hand as indicating that things have changed in fundamental ways for this company, and that the compelling success story of Microsoft and their ascension to the pinnacle of profitability and growth has ceased, or worse, reversed, then they would wise to sell, avoid, or short MSFT shares. Either way, one will be rewarded or punished by the market for their ability (or inability) to read the signs available to all. This year, those who saw a darker picture did better with MSFT than those who retained their optimism.
In my opinion, and it's just my opinion, we'll be seeing rising stock prices following our period of stability. I don't have an opinion when this will happen, but I have observed that this current period has already outlived all previous.
This may take some time. I believe Microsoft must re-prove its value as an investment, as many people have been disappointed with how they responded to some recent challenges, such as their current legal mess, for example. We need to see some evidence that the leadership in Redmond has a firm grasp of the current business climate, technology direction(s), and customer needs. For many, investing is an act of faith, and most require some foundation upon which to base this faith; hence, re-establishing investor confidence is a huge challenge and will take time.
Cheers, PW. |
