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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 670.92

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Logain Ablar who wrote (28416)	9/24/2000 2:59:11 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) of 67759

I believe that we are very definitely nearing the end of another economic cycle. The signs are everywhere and are easily discerned in the sector performance over the last 6 months. The only high technology sector that has performed well is the Biotechnology Sector. This is a sector that can hardly be measured by earnings growth in the sector. I believe we have another 3 to 4 months where the market itself is in a very high risk situation. Why? It's simply because the FED will not lower interest rates until after we have a new president in office. High energy prices are going to slow the economy further and eventually Mr. Greenspan will realize that those high prices do not really constitute actual inflation. If I am wrong and we do not get an interest rate decrease early next year then the result could be catastrophic to the markets. It does not matter that INTC may have missed earnings due as much to competition from AMD as a slowdown in Europe, what we saw on Friday is a scared market. What really matters is that all high technology companies have been valued on extremely high growth rates that will not accelerate as quickly in a high interest rate environment. Short term it is probable that the Nasdaq will return to the 4200 to 4300 level before we really have to worry about the major drop that could be coming. Just my 2 cents! RTS

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