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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: david_langston who wrote (10069)9/24/2000 11:42:39 PM
From: DRBESRead Replies (5) of 275872
 
<font color=red>A DARBES RANT:

re: "I'm asking what hopefully is a just hypothetical question to elicit discussion about the minimum threshold needed for AMD to gain some respect. I have crossed fingers that the minimum WILL be exceeded. Anyone feel free to jump in here."

The question that you ask is one that the pundits, ANALysts, and portfolio managers dwell on and would seem to be not only an excellent one but also fundamental to just when or even "if" AMD is going to ever progress upward in share price. I would like to take the seemingly ironic position that it is unimportant and misses the whole point. inteL has approximately twenty-five times as many shares out there to spread its earnings over and AMD is in the process of taking a significant portion of its top and bottom lines away. Even if only a small fraction of this (and I am betting heavily and in a very real way that it will not be such a small fraction) is translated and spread over the very much smaller number of AMD shares the effect will be humongous. When will the full effect start to be felt, I honestly do not know but it is already oncoming. A dime away from inteL's earnings will translate, somehow, to between one or two dollars per share in earnings for AMD. The relationship in this translation should be more sporadic than linear but it would appear to oncoming and progressively more inevitable. It is as if Rodney Dangerfield (AMD is, after all, often called the Rodney Dangerfield of the semiconductor industry.) were to appear on the Tonight Show, tell a very flat joke and after getting "no respect" from the audience, pull out a statement from his broker showing his net worth to exceed $200 billion; and then walk off the stage asserting that he does not need any respect.

The parallel may be flawed but when AMD starts to report several dollars per share in earnings the market, a place that always seems to eventually say "SHOW ME THE MONEY" will probably let the shares appreciate. In due course, AMD may also get some respect.

PLEASE SOMEBODY COMMENT!!!!

Patient Regards,

DARBES
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