Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (48579)	9/25/2000 3:17:26 AM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Great post. Thanks for the effort. Friday surprised me- the strength the market showed despite the earnings warning from 'one of the four horsemen' could not be believed. It was almost to unreal... Yes, we had some good news on the political front- in that the leaders recogonize the risk that the downward spiral of the Euro combined with the upward spiral of Oil represented to world wide economic growth. While we need higher energy prices to encourage development of conservation and sustainable alternatives, prices rising out of control will create much more pain of dislocation than is necessary. I don't know what next week holds. The strength Friday suggest that there is huge belief in our ability as a global society to navigate the shoals of economic dangers present at this time. But it could be clearly inaccurate belief, and perhaps only a sustained decline despite our best efforts would allow this to sink in. I hope that the SPR release may break the downward spiral; that being the the reluctance of oil players to build inventories in the face of unrealistic near term prices of oil futures driving the oil futures even higher in response to the unreal low levels of inventories. I don't know that will be the outcome though. I also hope that the intervention on the Euro front will lead to some stability in the currency markets. In the best case, stability allows sustainable growth. Worst case, instability results in less than ideal results- meaning less for all. In a way, the Euro was in the same self reinforcing scenario as oil. I understand that it's not likely that the leaders will get all the answers correct- yet I have to hold hope that we can avoid the worst case scenario that your indicators suggest is on the horizon. BWDIK?

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