Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Roebear who wrote (74496)	9/25/2000 10:05:34 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Interesting read and analysis from B.I.S., thanks Roebear. A 5% decline in the dollar already? Hmmmm. A little more interventions by the G-7 to support the Euro or perhaps the Korean Won as Bull postulated ought to turn at least the Intermediate trend in the $ to the downside. The larger picture over the next 6 months or so? My suggestion would be to look at the merchandise trade deficit as if it were a kind of "inflation leverage". Consider it similar to the debit balance in a heavily margined trading account. On the international financial stage, our giant trade deficit will multiply the inflationary impact of any decline in the dollar and result in inflation numbers climbing much more rapidly than almost anyone expects. And this "suprise" will serve to make the dollar decline even more rapidly. So, viewed in that context, it looks like BIS was "on the money" in choosing the word precipice to describe the risks approaching in the next few months. Isopatch

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