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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: DRBES who wrote (10133)9/25/2000 12:21:33 PM
From: david_langstonRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
DRBES,

The first step for AMD is to jump from the Rodney-Dangerfield-Get-No-Respect-Market-Pariah-Absurdly-Low-Valuation Status to a simple Joe-Schmoe-Average-Stock-Valuation Status.

1. I think all that is needed for them to make the transition will be to keep achieving their stated goals. The market may require some percentage above stated goals if they think AMD's management has set the bar too low.

2. Because AMD doesn't give earnings guidance, the market may not focus on their earnings growth, but rather their top line growth and their CPU unit sales growth. At a minimum, they will need to meet their CPU unit growth goals. The top line growth will be more difficult because they sold the comm group, but IMO if they exceed 10% growth the Street should be impressed.

3. The Street has been focusing more on top line growth in the past few months (note the sharp reaction to Intel's growth revision), so I think the 10% revenue growth will be more important than meeting the CPU goals for this quarter.

4. I doubt that AMD will make the transition this quarter. It won't happen until the majority of analysts stop being surprised by their growth and achieved goals! Maybe in Q3, '01. IOW, through another spring-summer slow-down.

5. But at least, AMD will erase the last negative quarter for the prior year. That will help.

The next step beyond Joe-Schmoe-Average-Stock-Valuation Status would be the Most-Exhaulted-Golden-Halo-Supreme-Valuation Status. AMD will never achieve this. Too many years of disappointments. This is reserved for companies that have never disappointed and aren't expected to until the infinite future arrives. Intel has been climbing towards this group by posting successive quarters of growth, but they may start slipping back to Average Status if their halo keeps tarnishing.

Regards,
Dave
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