Hi Rosebud -- It's early in the game, but CTRA seems to be well positioned to grab a meaningful chunk of the e-learning marketplace.
Sorry I don't have the link for you, but IDC has projected phenominal growth in this category (which also includes business collaberation and corporate training) over the next several years.
The CEO of Centra, Leon Navickas, cut his teeth (successfully, I hear) as a prominent figure at the Lotus Notes Division, and left to start Centra. He also grabbed some good operational management talent from Avid Technology. The VP of Sales (who I know from another life) is a former IBMer and top performer.
It's unclear why the IPO has failed, but it's encouraging that non-underwriters are now picking up coverage with BUY rec.s with significantly higher price targets. There does seem to be some serious insider overhang (see 144's) but that should only be a short-term deterent to solid share price appreciation so long as the sales momentum continues.
I've noticed one of their key competitors, WEBX, with similar sales and growth rates, but higher losses, has a market cap almost 10x that of CTRA. They seem to be doing a better job of creating partnerships (recently announced deals with Commerce One, Lawson, Paramentric and others) but it's not yet clear how that will translate into sales growth. Still, CTRA has been quickly signing new accounts and building it's own international distribution channel on top of its selection by MSFT in June as a component on its digital dashboard.
That's a quick overview of what attracted me to CTRA (I've also read some favorable articles in local press). I'm cautious in the near term and, so, have built half a position at current prices (between $6.50 - $7.50). I plan to add more, or sell it, based on the results of the current Q (announced Oct 16th, I believe). Naturally, I'm looking for continued acceleration of top line growth, solid margins, and a earnings surprise, as in smaller loss than expected.
Curious about what you've uncovered in you DD and you plans to Buy or Pass...
BV |
