Re: Optical Access/Edge/Metro - Stats from Pioneer
Thread- Now in a follow-up(again thanks to ftth on the FCTF), here's another view of how large the metro optical market (anything outside of the core, long-haul, backbone, etc.) will be. It's not easy to define exactly what the metro space involves so that is part of the confusion. But IMVHO, I'm more prone to believe these figures but it's really just a guess for now. Overall I just find it hard to imagine the take rate on broadband not having a crushing effect on the metro markets. I don't understand it well enough so I can only make very general statements.
Consider the MSOs bringing the Internet to the 70 million couch potatoes STBs(TVs), the telcos supposedly surpassing CM with DSL, and then add the super hype about mobile wireless. All would seem to indicate to me a major traffic jam in the edge/metro markets. -MikeM(From Florida)
PS Edit: I forgot the throw in one of my legacy investor comments. Check out the category under SONET. Good news for legacy investing and maybe explains the relative lack of media hype.
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North American Optical Edge Systems Market to Grow to More Than $8.3 Billion in 2004
According to Pioneer Consulting
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Sept. 13-- The North American market for optical edge systems, including next-generation SONET, Integrated Metro DWDM and Metro Optical IP will create a market of $1.15 billion in 2000 and reach more than $8.3 billion by 2004, according to Pioneer's new report, Optical Edge Networks: Market Opportunities for Integrated Optical Network Solutions in Metro Networks.
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North American Optical Edge Systems Market(in billions)
Optical IP
2000 $0.11
2001 $0.18
2002 $0.43
2003 $0.71
2004 $1.08
Multiservice DWDM
2000 $0.11
2001 $0.20
2002 $0.42
2003 $0.66
2004 $0.92
Multiservice SONET
2000 $0.93
2001 $1.43
2002 $2.43
2003 $3.94
2004 $6.30
Total
2000 $1.15
2001 $1.81
2002 $3.28
2003 $5.31
2004 $8.30
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The optical edge networks market is slowly coming into focus, though a definition of this market will continue to evolve as systems move from the labs into the field and carriers determine how and to what extent these integrated systems will be deployed. Simply put, optical edge network systems are being developed to address the shortcomings of existing metro networks and their voice-oriented technologies and architectures.
Optical edge network systems combine scalability of the optical layer (Layer 0), with processing of Layers 1, 2 and/or 3 to provide a single network element that performs the functions of many, simplifying provisioning, network management, and ideally reducing both first costs and lifecycle costs for carriers. The importance of this integration is directly related to the profound changes underway in both public and private networks today, in which an inexorable migration from circuit switching to packet switching is taking place, and the prominence of data traffic is requiring a complete rethinking and reengineering of networks.
It is quite possible, therefore, that the optical edge market is only the beginning of an evolutionary "de-layering" of the network, in which IP emerges as the dominant services layer, residing on top of a thin adaptation layer such as MPLS carried on a configurable optical layer. This explains why so many optical edge systems seem to be hybrids; the market is not ready for the ultimate IP-over-optics solution and instead requires an interim step in which legacy services are accommodated in their native format over a common transport platform.
Optical edge network equipment vendors/manufacturers and service providers profiled in this report include: AT&T, Allied Riser, Alidian Networks, Appian Communications, Astral Point Communications, ATG, Broadband Office, Broadwing, Centerpoint Broadband Technologies, Chromatis Networks, Ciena, Cisco Systems, Coriolis Networks, Cyras Systems, Extreme Networks, Fujitsu Network Communications, Global Crossing, Geyser Networks, Kestrel Solutions, Lantern Communications, Level3, Lucent Technologies, LuxN, Luminous Networks, Marconi Communications, Mayan Networks, Metro-Optix, Nortel Networks, Quantum Bridge, Qwest, Redback/Siara Systems, Sirocco Systems, Sprint, Terawave, Tropic Networks, WorldCom and Zaffire. |
