Mang & All:
I was going to post these numbers before the earnings announcement but I didn't feel like sticking my neck out too far with the preliminary revenue/earnings model I have. But FWIW, here's what I had for Q1:
(1) Gross revenues $425 million, +/- $35 million
(2) Unit sales 1.4 million, +/- 0.1 million
(3) Device revenues $342 million, +/-$30 million
(4) Device ASP $244/unit, +/-$24/unit
(5) Accessory revenues $68, +/-$5 million
(6) Licensing revenues $6 million, +/- $1.5 million
(7) Content/access revenues $9 million +/- $3 million.
(8) EPS $0.03/share, +/- $0.005/share.
Since revenues came in at $401 million, units at 1.5 million and EPS at $0.04/share, it looks like there are some significant adjustments I need to make. My revenue number was way too high, mainly because the actual ASP is at the bottom (pessimistic) end of the range I had, presumably because I either didn't allow enough for price reductions and/or there were more M100's in the mix than I assumed. It also looks like I either over-estimated expenses, or they have a lot more "other income" than I assumed.
The lower revenue and higher number of units shipped than I had estimated could indicate that they shoved a lot of M100's into the distribution channel, and that's why I under-estimated the EPS. I truly hope they're not indulging in that kind of practice to make revenues/EPS numbers. But even if that is the case, I guess they'll easily sell them all before Christmas. Have to check the accounts receivables to try and see what's in the distribution channel.
After I get the chance to dissect the Q1 numbers, I'll post the model prediction for Q2 and forward estimates for FY 2001/2/3.
David T. |
