Bambs, you don't have to take me seriously. I give forecasts for fun, because ultimately no one really believes them. But I didn't give a blind forecast. I stated my assumptions clearly. In addition, I made that particular comment, because I think a 30-50% return in one year is a phenomenally great return, but I know the new generation of investors will think that is ridiculously low.
Anyway, I still think my forecast will prove itself out, but I wouldn't blame you if you completely ignore my prediction. Of course, as part of my assumptions, I believe the oil crisis will be brought under control, that the Fed may decrease interest rates in the next 6 months, that the Euro's malaise will find relief, and that telecom spending will continue unabated because they have to in order to survive. Prove me wrong on any of those assumptions and then my forecast begins to fall apart. But then that's why forecasts are so fun.
BTW, when you give a downward forecast, try giving us a list of reasons why you believe Cisco will lose 30% of its value and we'll probably listen and debate with you. Otherwise, you ruffle feathers. Enough said on this topic. |
