Sign of Bear makes much sense
prolonged periods of churning with high volume, sector rotation, and minimal sideways results with major averages
these conditions precede a nasty bear claw
that is what I read... correct me if wrong
I believe such characteristics are very typical at the tail end of Federal Reserve tightening cycles... as opposed to 1994 (last Fed tightening), this time we have a broad expanding economy... in 1994 we had emergence from a mini-recession following the Gulf War
so I would say the Sign of the Bear will likely do some damage... watch out for very mature sectors like retail, stodgy industrials (who refuse to exploit internet), automobile value chain, PC niches, old networking, etc
I would NOT worry about nascent expanding revolutionary technology sectors like fiberoptic, wireless, internet B2B, communications, advanced semiconductor, software mgmt
in the next 8-10 months, I will not be surprised to see certain sectors declining 15-30% while others rise 100-150%... this time around, we should see true distinction and separation
just rambling, Jim |
