The response of the market to scans is often more important
than the scans themselves. Signal effectiveness for buy
signals are still poor. Usually, when a market forms a
short-term trough, the long signals will start to be worked
off. There was the potential for a bounce after the low in
breadth early last week before the next downleg. I also had
two buy signals on the Nasdaq at that time and the general
market had a preponderance of buy signals over 80 percent.
It can also take a week for the market to hit bottom or to
peak from when the database/universe of stocks moves above
80 percent.
I am looking for the market to make a trough in mid-October
around the 20-week low after the 3-month cycle high at the
end of August. The next significant high would be the end
of November at the 6-month cycle high with the potential for
a very difficult early 2001. Regardless of whether one
uses the March trough for DJIA/SPX or the general trough
at the end of May as the base for a 9-month cycle, December
should be very poor.
Market/Sector Breadth Journal: September 25, 2000 (4112 stocks)
percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year
---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ----------
Sep 25 30 33 43 44 374 - 1131 263 - 887 116 - 258
Sep 22 32 35 44 45 391 - 1049 276 - 791 108 - 198
Sep 21 28 33 44 45 288 - 1266 207 - 892 69 - 207
Sep 20 31 38 46 45 320 - 1031 229 - 730 84 - 208
Sep 19 31 40 47 47 299 - 869 221 - 595 82 - 166
Sep 18 27 38 45 45 179 - 1524 222 - 723 79 - 209
Sep 15 41 48 51 48 415 - 944 354 - 577 137 - 119
Sep 8 51 59 56 50 638 - 645 504 - 359 165 - 73
Sep 1 64 64 59 51 969 - 319 735 - 203 162 - 44
Aug 25 55 59 53 49 698 - 446 545 - 220 112 - 47
Aug 18 53 55 51 48 564 - 493 324 - 292 78 - 75
Aug 11 57 47 48 47 788 - 401 479 - 355 136 - 96
Aug 4 47 39 46 45 640 - 474 426 - 379 128 - 98
Jul 28 23 29 40 42 192 - 1662 150 - 1094 60 - 212
Nasdaq 100
percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year
---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ----------
Sep 25 43 31 43 48 14 - 29 9 - 27 6 - 7
Sep 22 44 25 45 49 18 - 27 11 - 22 7 - 3
Sep 21 33 27 46 49 6 - 21 5 - 17 3 - 3
Sep 20 43 33 41 49 10 - 19 6 - 15 3 - 2
Sep 19 37 32 48 48 10 - 14 6 - 10 3 - 3
Sep 18 18 23 35 44 4 - 51 4 - 38 3 - 4
Sep 15 29 32 47 49 6 - 41 4 - 28 2 - 1
Sep 8 24 51 58 48 4 - 31 3 - 11 1 - 1
Sep 1 87 82 74 58 36 - 3 34 - 2 6 - 0
Aug 25 74 75 66 55 26 - 7 24 - 5 1 - 0
Aug 18 66 68 51 52 20 - 9 12 - 4 3 - 0
Aug 11 51 37 43 46 9 - 13 2 - 13 1 - 2
Aug 4 45 27 43 47 10 - 7 4 - 7 1 - 2
Jul 28 7 15 28 43 0 - 67 0 - 45 0 - 11
S & P 100
percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 10-days 20-days 1-year
---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ----------
Sep 25 32 31 42 51 6 - 22 2 - 20 2 - 6
Sep 22 35 32 44 50 8 - 22 7 - 18 2 - 6
Sep 21 18 22 41 51 3 - 31 2 - 20 1 - 7
Sep 20 15 19 37 52 3 - 46 2 - 38 2 - 9
Sep 19 18 30 43 55 1 - 31 0 - 25 0 - 11
Sep 18 20 30 45 51 5 - 41 4 - 28 3 - 5
Sep 15 34 35 54 55 10 - 26 9 - 18 5 - 4
Sep 8 50 51 59 56 23 - 25 18 - 18 7 - 3
Sep 1 48 54 62 55 15 - 15 12 - 10 4 - 3
Aug 25 50 61 65 60 13 - 10 11 - 5 5 - 0
Aug 18 47 68 67 61 13 - 12 10 - 5 2 - 1
Aug 11 83 73 73 58 28 - 1 23 - 1 6 - 0
Aug 4 68 56 62 56 28 - 9 24 - 7 9 - 3
Jul 28 36 42 42 54 11 - 26 7 - 11 1 - 4
percent stocks over MA *********** 20-day highs/lows ************
sector (num) 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 09/25 09/22 09/21 09/20
---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------- --------- --------- ---------
Aerospace/Defense (50) 38 36 50 58 5 - 8 7 - 8 5 - 4 3 - 8
Apparel (88) 30 40 55 53 3 - 23 3 - 18 3 - 13 1 - 9
Automotive (36) 17 8 25 17 1 - 11 2 - 12 1 - 14 0 - 13
Banks (116) 42 59 77 71 10 - 3 4 - 13 5 - 19 10 - 8
Biotechnology (152) 46 47 60 59 15 - 15 17 - 13 9 - 21 12 - 15
Building/Constr (111) 23 23 39 39 5 - 28 2 - 20 4 - 37 3 - 23
Chemical (64) 19 19 19 30 1 - 19 3 - 17 2 - 22 2 - 20
Commercial Svcs (199) 37 38 41 38 19 - 40 16 - 26 14 - 31 22 - 32
Computer Svcs (59) 36 34 39 25 10 - 10 8 - 13 7 - 11 6 - 13
Computer Equip (162) 27 28 40 31 10 - 49 10 - 53 7 - 31 13 - 23
Consumer Nondur (42) 38 31 29 29 1 - 5 5 - 3 1 - 6 2 - 8
Drug (ex-Biotech) (94) 64 63 70 77 15 - 5 21 - 3 12 - 10 10 - 8
Electronics (324) 24 23 38 45 18 - 111 9 - 93 12 - 70 13 - 28
Financial (120) 42 57 81 81 10 - 6 8 - 5 8 - 11 6 - 4
Foods (69) 46 51 42 48 4 - 8 10 - 1 6 - 4 5 - 13
Healthcare (97) 57 56 62 59 15 - 11 22 - 8 15 - 11 14 - 9
Household Prods (38) 24 16 34 37 2 - 10 0 - 13 1 - 12 1 - 10
Insurance (95) 63 66 73 74 14 - 3 15 - 3 9 - 7 7 - 3
Internet (391) 23 20 23 11 20 - 128 13 - 99 16 - 117 17 - 101
Leisure (121) 39 43 45 46 8 - 24 7 - 23 8 - 18 8 - 20
Machinery (49) 8 14 29 37 0 - 10 0 - 16 0 - 16 0 - 13
Media (94) 26 27 35 33 8 - 18 5 - 29 2 - 33 5 - 27
Medical Tech (132) 38 36 48 56 13 - 21 12 - 17 12 - 18 9 - 18
Metals (ex-Gold) (75) 11 16 24 28 0 - 25 0 - 24 1 - 32 1 - 25
Oil & Gas (178) 13 23 58 80 5 - 51 4 - 59 7 - 50 11 - 34
Paper Prods & Pkg (47) 11 9 6 13 0 - 20 1 - 10 1 - 19 0 - 25
Real Estate (119) 32 49 48 74 4 - 9 18 - 3 6 - 7 13 - 4
Retail (242) 32 38 44 47 17 - 49 21 - 41 17 - 28 9 - 35
Semiconductors (156) 21 18 31 36 5 - 66 3 - 54 5 - 37 8 - 11
Software (198) 30 32 44 34 21 - 44 20 - 34 11 - 37 13 - 23
Telecom (294) 21 12 17 21 9 - 78 8 - 82 1 - 119 6 - 100
Transportation (82) 21 24 27 43 0 - 26 1 - 18 2 - 24 3 - 24
Utilities (117) 17 40 62 69 2 - 11 5 - 5 1 - 21 1 - 18
AIQ market log (buy - sell ratios of signals)
September 25 DJIA 10,808 Nasdaq 3,741
Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US)
Universe of stocks 55 - 45 85 - 15
S&P 100 48 - 52 100 - 0
Nasdaq 100 68 - 32 80 - 20
Nasdaq Comp fired daily buy signals on September 18 and 19.
DJIA/NYSE fired weekly sell signal on September 15.
September 22 DJIA 10,847 Nasdaq 3,803
Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US)
Universe of stocks 55 - 45 85 - 15
S&P 100 53 - 47 100 - 0
Nasdaq 100 83 - 17 80 - 20
September 15 DJIA 10,927 Nasdaq 3,835
Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US)
Universe of stocks 31 - 69 57 - 43
S&P 100 26 - 74 60 - 40
Nasdaq 100 45 - 55 83 - 17
September 8 DJIA 11,220 Nasdaq 3,978
Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US)
Universe of stocks 30 - 70 38 - 62
S&P 100 41 - 59 44 - 56
Nasdaq 100 3 - 97 50 - 50
September 1 DJIA 11,238 Nasdaq 4,234
Weighted Action List (WAL) Unconfirmed Signals (US)
Universe of stocks 56 - 44 29 - 71
S&P 100 33 - 67 67 - 33
Nasdaq 100 44 - 56 0 - 100 |
