Why I think the NASDAQ is going to move up from here:
After a steep fall the market has been in a trading range since June. Last week, after getting close to the bottom of the range, on 9/19 we saw a strong move up on high volume. Over the next few days Euro worries intensified, oil worries intensified and then a major tech stock, Intel, issued a profit warning. If the market was going to crater, that was the time to do it. But it showed strength.
Now we might have expected the strength to continue unabated, but the market sold back yesterday. It will likely continue to sea-saw, but I believe the general direction will be higher.
Plenty of new cash is entering the market, both from domestic sources and from overseas.
This is an election year, the party in power does not want to see the market take a slide this close to the election.
I think, that despite his repeated comments to the contrary, that Mr. Greenspan does target the stock market. I believe that he regarded the markets as too high earlier in the year and used the specter of impending inflation as a straw-man to raise interest rates and cause a market decline. I believe the market has fallen enough, and I'm guessing that he now would like to see it stabilize and move up slowly. He can't abruptly change direction on interest rates, but he can quietly increase the money supply. Doing so should positively influence stocks.
Lastly, I think some quarterly window-dressing may move some money out of old economy stocks and into new economy stocks. New market leaders such as JNPR, NTAP or BRCD should continue to do well.
Naturally this is all JMHO, but since you asked...
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