LOL! I did indeed bet Telecomguy that CSCO would outperform NT from 1/1-7/31 and I lost. But what you didn't catch is that I loaded up on NT January, because I believed it would be their year. I believed it would be their year for one reason alone - optics. It was a no brainer that everyone thought about, so I'm not claiming prescience.
As far as reverse logic, the vulcan mind works in mysterious ways. :) I own both NT and CSCO, but I like CSCO as a company better, so I like to bet with them, sortof like I like to bet with the Dallas Cowboys (but that's another story).
As far as what the future holds, I go for straight fundamentals. The next year may be ugly, but the most likely scenario is that Cisco will continue to perform at excellent levels, which will translate in moderate stock price gains. My reasoning is simple. I don't believe in a PE collapse over the long term. We will see a retracement in October because it always happens. But as CSCO earnings get steadily larger and the PE contracts, the price will move up, just not as fast as it used to. Just my guess. I don't blaim you for protecting what you have, though. I personally will stay invested, because my horizon is a bit longer. I'll sell some either 5 years from now or when the fundamentals change. Good luck to you! |
