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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 341.36+1.3%Jan 29 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (37482)9/26/2000 10:20:32 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Excellent post Ian.

I think this is the 17th prediction for the end of the last 3 cycles

I noted on another thread that true multi-year cycles normally will have most stocks split at least once, with first tier names splitting numerous times. The most recent was '92-95. '95 started the semi recession and '97 was an anomalous uptick in spending by Taiwanese foundries; not an upcycle like many make it out to be. Truth be told, few have actually been through a REAL cycle, myself included. But if you go back and look at stock splits, we have more that have not split than have. Additionally, many names are below the highs they set several years ago. PRIA hit 60 in '97, it's now at 20. EGLS hit 36 last cycle, it's now at 17. CYMI hit 47, it's now at 33. The list goes on and on. And yet these companies are not only making money, but we have yet to see the real migration to 300mm. With the historical low in capex we saw in the latter half of the 90's, we need above mean capex just to catch up. I am simply amazed at how many people have proclaimed the cycle as being over using a scenario of cookie-cutter logic.....when nobody has ever succesfully done so in the past.

BK
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