Mang:
I listened to the entire CC last night, maybe I'll find the time to post a synopsis later. But to add to your point, Carl Y & Judy B. made the following comments:
(1) Palm VII/VIIx have been and are component restrained - 2 sole source IC's that they are qualifying additional suppliers for.
(2) This has restricted Palm VII to a linear sales ramp and limited marketing because they can't make enough. When the constraints come off by Q3 or early Q4, Carl said they'll move into high gear and a "hockey stick" growth curve. He said "the sky's the limit" for Palm VII and follow-on devices in the enterprise market, and Hand/Sony aren't active in that space. He also said that the CIO's they've talked to are equally interested in the infrastructure support for Palm VII, hence the work with IBM, ORCL, SUNW and other partners and the in-house work on enterprise support programs.
(3) Judy B. said that the present Palm.net is operating as an ISP, revenues/sub are around $20/month, and those will ramp as Palm VII ramps next year.
(4) As they get connectivity onto all PAlm's, in some future relationships with carriers will operate as an ASP, lower revenue/sub but higher margin revenue.
(5) Within 1-2 years they expect to have at least 1/3 of all Palm owners online via Palm.net, Palm portal, and ASP relationships with carriers, generating recurring revenue from every Palm owner. They sound confident they'll get their share of this potentially huge revenue stream.
(6) In response to a specific Q about "always on" email and IM a la RIMM competition, Carl said that Palm would have this in the 2H 2001, and they would "make, buy or acquire a partner" in every business area where it made sense.
(7) M100 ramp is fastest they've seen, over 150,000 units shipped in less than one month (>10% of all units), strong sell through, ramping up for holiday season. Channel inventory (which worried me) was still lower than they'd like going into the strong Q2, but they were building to 60 days if possible. Q4 channel inventory was well below what they'd like due to capacity constraints. M100 would bring ASP's down somewhat in Q2, ASP's would stabilize in Q3, then increase in Q4 as Palm VII and SD products ramp up.
Overall, very positive CC. Carl said that demand exceeds supply in every market they are in for every product they have, that we will see the momentum building over the next few months, there's lots around the corner he can't talk about now but wait until next Q's CC, that they haven't even begun aggressive marketing yet, but "just watch us".
My piggy bank of PALM stays locked for now.
David T. |
