RE: "Thus my point... at these prices where do people think we may go, a bit lower or a small bounceback? Interested in folks take on this."
----------
Hi Bruce,
INTC run-ups are hard to guess. But when they happen, they tend to happen quickly. So, I never try to guess them, but I also never risk missing one. So, patience is generally the virtue I use (i.e. LT), after I've analyzed a company's overall market/products/financials.
Nonetheless, since you asked, I'll venture an off-the-top of my head guess that a run-up could happen in about a year. Another split in about 1.5 years. I don't consider the year 2000 to be an overly exciting product release year.
However, I think the products that Intel announced are coming out of the pipe next year, begin to sound intriguing. After their release, and by the time we hit 2002, I think we will start seeing some Intel manufacturing crank (which in my opinion, translates into higher volumes, possibly a tad better margins, better financials) into more appealing markets (like Server biz, network, etc.) than just the desktop PC chip business.
Of course, this assumes key product launches are successful, i.e. no recalls of any significant $ order, and adoption of standards are successful.
I'm also assuming the corporate market will pick up over the next 18 months - with the latest Win2000 pack to work its way through, improved Server OS/chips, etc. However, with the potential for Europe-itis spreading, I'm not betting on the consumer market in the near-term, which is AMD's favorite market.
Best,
Amy J |
