Hello Enigma,
if I may step in, (Grayhairs works mostly the nightshift these days <gg>), I also own a chunk of ELK and yes, some of that at higher prices, as do many of my friends, ex-friends and all the other fools who listened to me. Hell, I won't beat about the bush, I even own 40,000 of their warrants, half of which I acquired as long ago as last October. <ggrrr> This is by way of saying that I follow the company fairly closely -or that I am the biggest fool of all, some days I am not sure which.
<<Look at it another way - from ELH only include future cash flow from BKP #1 - how
does the current stock price stack up as a multiple of 2001 cash flow per share do
you think?>>
ELK is currently producing 4,900 Boe/d and should exit 2000 at about 5,000 boe/d.
Assuming only a modest 5% production increase to 5,250 boe/d plus 15 Mmcf/d BKP # 1 production as per Berkley's estimates, ELK's 2001 cash flow should be at least $1.64 per share. (basic - this is based on 26 MM S/O, WTI $26, HH $4.00, C$1.46)
If these pricing assumptions hold and they miss this modest production and CF target by more than 5%, I'd suggest we fire the management and sell the whole damn elk herd to a meat pie maker. <gg>
$3.41 now, huh. That's less than 2.1 times my target CF. Sweet Shepherd!!
CIO |
