Rande - my hypothesis:
We either hit bottom today or at a gap down tomorrow. Why?
Well, market has been on downswing ever since big players returned from the Hamptons in September. They have taken away all the gains the retail crowd picked up in their absence in August.
Last Friday was the perfect opportunity for final capitulation - with INTC warning the night before - and while we gapped down 200+, we closed nearly even, meaning the people who were going to panic, did so Thursday afterhours and first thing Friday.
Since then, volume on the NAZ has been higher than normal.
finance.yahoo.com^TV.O&d=5d
And their have been some real curious headfakes, gap up / crush then plays. All of this IMO has been an effort by the big boys to wring out whatever remains from the little guy. They couldn't get the level of capitulation they wanted on Friday, so they have us on a slow painful death march, going thru multiple daily wash and rinse cycles. If you can't wring out the shares you want in one fell swoop - what is the next best way? A frustrating, back and forth, over and over again wash and rinse.
Now, looking at the technicals - we have support on the NAZ at 3615.
bigcharts.com
Worst case, I believe we bounce off of that and rally. On the DOW, technicals are similiar:
bigcharts.com
Plus, we have end of quarter window dressing this Friday. So, I believe we have hit bottom today, or will do so early tomorrow - and that Friday, we will see a big up day, particualrly in the high flyers that have done well - and the portfolio mgrs will want showing up in their quarter.
I'd like to hear some others viewpoints |
