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Technology Stocks : Veeco Instruments-Who?
VECO 30.39+4.2%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Mandinga who wrote (2871)9/27/2000 4:25:43 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) of 3069
 
I have been saying this since May, my critical point was AMAT holding the $78 level then (now that level may become an overhead resistance). By the way, this does not mean that we have reached the maximum in equip. shipment, that will probably take some more time. From a fundamental point of view, there are a number of other parameters. The chip industry is spending on cap ex well in excess of its depreciation charges and in excess of 20% of sales (currently, the figure for cap -ex for 2000 are at around $55 to $60 B but sales will be about $200 B). The BTB ratio has passed its peak (1.41 or 1.43 if memory serves) few months back, and typically a peak in the BTB correspond with a peak in the stocks prices, not a peak in shipments. Starting next ear we are going to see difficult growth comparison to this year (this year we could often expect 50% to 100% YOY increases but next year, these may not be greater than 20% and in many cases already going negative (see KLIC and PRIA, if memory serves). All signs of a peak in the cycle.

Zeev

irrevolute.iuma.com
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