The Law of Unintended Consequences & the direction of oil flow -
According to Bloomberg prices in London for Brent closed at $31.13, and per INO light sweet crude closed at $31.42 today. At a spread of $0.29 the driving force for crude traffic is yet again strongly toward Europe & not the US. That could at least partially explain why heating oil is also being shipped to Europe in recent days - they're willing to pay for it while we whine.
Political tampering in the crude supply is making this situation much worse, not better. It will be interesting to see if this issue gets any air time with the professional analysts.
Another topic, I'm not your typical Politically Correct poster, but I'm not a flamer either. My comments are always directly related to money making potential - not to personal attacks, if anybody has taken them as such I apologize. I don't pretend to be a guru - I just dig for value and an underlying story, and sometimes that clashes with people's emotions.
If you make a bad call you are human, if you make it twice you are perhaps accident prone, if you make it over and over and over again I think you should eventually be taken to task - especially if you enjoy a good deal of credibility on a public thread. That's not bickering - it's intelligent conversation.
I don't like PGO for several reasons. 1) Seismic is dead right now. The majors & independents all have large seismic libraries processed and big backlogs of hot prospects to drill, and frankly the majors just aren't going through them very fast as they haven't unleashed the capex. Another factor is the mergers of majors and also of seismic companies - with less of them out there the libraries have been consolidated thereby shrinking the fragmentation that can lead multiple companies to pay for the same information over and over again. Also, a large amount of seismic was shot on a non-exclusive basis and made available to any bidders - this has reduced the need to contract new shots as multiple companies can now get the same information. 2) The company is Norweigian which means they have anything but shareholder interest in mind. Their main criteria is pseudo-socialist full employment, and a repatriation of capital to the homeland, neither of which are always conducive to the bottom lines or foreign shareholders pocketbooks. 3) They've had some serious bumbles on the newbuilds. They touted the Ramforth rigs as great platforms because they are so stable - only to have the British government force them to recall one for shipyard improvements to improve the lousy motion characteristics. That's pretty embarrassing, and costly to boot.
GLBL - don't get me wrong on this one. I've said they've been a dog in the past compared to others in the industry which is quite true - you can compare them to damn near anybody in the service companies and see they have lagged. They are a late cycle play that will get going when lots of new offshore developments go in and need pipelines. They have a bright future, but if you've been sitting on them for the last year or so you've missed out on a lot.
Sharp |
