Well, we should know soon. If anybody loaded up on the stock, it should hold up.
Speaking of Bill Fleckenstein, I've been trying to find out what his hedge fund has done over the last several years. He seems to be gloating lately about how right he is on this down move, and I'm wondering if he has been short for the past three years, how much lower the market has to go before he might break even. <G>
Here's a statement from April of 1997:
Mr. Fleckenstein is bolder, citing Intel's situation as a possible harbinger. "I have a hunch that the peak will be in the first quarter of this year, and it may even have happened already," he says. "A serious recession is possible. PC sales are slowing--that's not debatable. PC prices were up 11 percent in the fourth quarter, but Intel's shipments were up 40 percent, and Intel's stock is trading at seven or eight times its revenues. When supply swamps demand, there will be a collapse in prices, and we've raised the diving board to a level where the fall could be bigger than ever."
redherring.com
"I believe a bear market is inevitable at some point, simply because in Nature, in life, in everything, there are cycles. There's no such thing as the elevator that only goes up, which is what the stock market is in people's minds' now. The consequence of it going up in changing people's behavior and pushing prices to where they are and all this is almost inevitably you have a bust. Similarly, when you have a bust, you set up the next boom. So these cycles occur for reasons. You sow the seeds of the next problem. I think it is inconceivable......we will have a monstrous set-back in the stock market. I don't know whether it's gonna come from 6000 on the Dow, 8000 or 10,000."
pbs.org
Billy was a little off on the top, if we just had a top... |
