Some Reasons We May Not Be At The Bottom Yet
Don - While I certainly can't say that we don't have a bounce coming up, there are a few things that make me feel fairly certain that it is just that, a bounce, and not a bottom. Among these are:
That $COMPX has not test Fridays "reversal" low of 3614, or the bottom of the 6/1 - 6/2 gap, which it is now in, and which is at 3583, nor tested the trendline support from the 10/9/99 and 5/24/00 lows and which measured about 3610 today.
Or that $NDX has not tested its "reversal" low at 3505 nor the low from 8/3, but it has pretty much taken out any trend line support I can see.
Or that $SPX closed below trendline support from 10/16/98 and 10/18/99, which pretty much was the last trendline support it had, and also was slapped down by its 13, 50, and 200 day SMA.
Or that $SOX and $ICX have not found any support,
Or that $IIX has not reached the 480 origin of the rising wedge which it broke down from, and also was capped by its 13 and 50 day SMA.
Or that the only thing you can say clearly about $TRAN is it appears to have support at 480.
But other than that I guess its time to buy the dip. |
