Art,
re: "I'd scarcely call this a bear market"
MHO, this is and has been a valuation correction.
About a year and a half to two years ago, the S&P 500 was selling for a PE in the upper 30's, now it is below 30. That's a VERY significant valuation haircut. Earnings growth has continued to be very strong during that time, so the markets haven't tanked, but the PE's have steadily declined. The techs have been the last to suffer the revaluation, probably because of their great earnings growth over the period, but recently any tech that stumbles, even the slightest bit, gets the revaluation axe (evidence the over-reaction to Intel near miss on revenues). Even some that don't stumble, Cisco is an example, are being revalued with flat stock performance, even though their earnings are still showing great growth, and the result is a PE correction. The market got overvalued, and it has found an orderly way to revalue the assets.
The good news is that with the "darlings" of the market, the techs, finally being revalued, I think we are nearing the end of this long process. They are really the last piece that is perceived to be overvalued. So I expect, sometime within the next year, the market will start to again reflect real earnings growth.
Just my take.
John |
