Right now, sellers are rocking the foundations of good companies. LU's already been decimated, but some/most of that is their own doing. T, WCOM, SBC, FON....are in the doghouse.
The 4 horsemen of NAZ are already pronounced "dead". Many others nearing 52 week lows. Mid caps are in (but got rocked today).
Semi's (SOX) got more downside coming. 15% IMO. AMAT and other capex guys are way off their highs.
NT, on the other hand, is a casualty of the perceived slowdown in telecom spending and suddenly, (at least today) the opticals are in the crosshairs, too.
There is certainly money flowing in, or else we'd be much lower. However, I gotta believe that we are much closer to the bottom as the top. Ralph Block said:
"It's too late to sell, but too early to buy". Interesting assessment. I think a couple of hundred point MAX on the Naz and it will be time to put some serious money to work.
Thinking is now that we WON'T get an interest rate cut as soon as expected since they've been "cheating" on the CPI numbers all year. This will put the FED on a more defensive, but not totally hawkish, posture. The cuts are coming though, probably in mid Q2 we'll see our first one.
Earnings are important in the next month, but guidance is the brass ring this time. Wall Street wants to know what comes back from the radar ping in the most generally cloudy picture we've seen in a long time.
Steve |
