Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.11

+0.9%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: RetiredNow who wrote (40163)	9/27/2000 8:57:51 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (4) of 77400

Here's what I think of your Cisco forecast below: First I will quote from the link below. siliconinvestor.com GROWTH RATES - 1 Year --- 3 Years --- 5 Years Sales % ------------ 55.74 % --- 43.15 % --- 53.34 % EPS % ------------- 16.56 % --- 28.80 % --- 35.02 % Now let's look at your numbers in the same format. They compute very neatly like so: GROWTH RATES - 1 Year - Next 5 Years Sales % ------------ 55 % ------- 41 % EPS % ------------- 55 % ------- 41 % Here's something to consider: Actual earnings growth% --- 1 Year --- Last 5 years as a % of sales growth% --- 30 % ------- 66 % Your earnings growth% ------ 1 Year --- Next 5 Years as a % of sales growth% --- 100 % ------- 100 % Now I'd like to quote you: I hate EPS/PE based forecasts, but they are easy to work up, so I thought I'd post one. Do you know why it's easy to calculate your numbers...because they are not well thought out. You must admit that when I present your forecast as above, next to the historical actual revenue and earnings growth rates they look very silly. If I were to take a shot at guess the numbers going forward I would have a very tough time. I would have to sit down with csco management and find out if they intent to continue to buy companies like they have in the past couple of years. With the accounting changes that are taking place these aquisitions will cause future earnings be flat to negative in terms of growth. If they don't intend to buy companies like the past then revenue growth should slow compared to the past few years. R&D expenditures would have to increase as well. There are assumptions that have to be made too. Is this the start of a prolonged bear market? Will telecom spending slow? Will the economy slip into a recession as a result of a bear market? If I had to just guess and wanted to be nice I would guess the following GROWTH RATES ---------- Last 5 Years -- This Year -- Next Year -- Next 5 Years Sales % ----- 53.34 % --- 55.74 % ------ 45 % --- 30 % EPS % ------ 35.02 % --- 16.56 % ------ 22 % --- 15 % I have actual earnings growth at a 50% rate to the revenue growth rate. Compared to this years actual of 30% and the five year of 50%...Too many assumptions and I think I am being more then fair. In fact way too fare on the earnings growth numbers considering the trend to declining margins, increased competition and the accounting change that results in amortizing goodwill. But still, I think they are much more realistic and will probably be ahead of the actual numbers. Bambs P.S. I may have seemed a little belligerent sorry but I can't help it some times. Here's the end number 2005 $1.07 per/share or 9 billion in total with 8.5 billion shares outstanding. P.E of 50. Which would be over valued then just like GE is now. $53.5 share price. That's why I say csco is dead money for 5 years at best. We are in a bear market everyone! I think things are going to get worse before they get better.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next