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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 212.19+5.9%3:59 PM EST

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To: marty44 who wrote (8763)9/27/2000 10:54:40 PM
From: La Traguhs  Read Replies (2) of 9256
 
Appreciate your post about the HGA line at SAE. Share what ever you can.

The word has been slow to get out about the TDK wafer fab flood. Those who have heard about it have said its under control and the situation is "being managed."

I've been trying to pin down the shipment gap that will be caused. I figure for every one week that TDK/SAE heads don't ship into the industry, it's approximately 1.4 million drives that won't ship industry wide.

I understand that the wafer fab was down for two weeks and has stated up but there has to be a 4 to 6 weeks re-qual (although a reduced version) period before they can be sure that the wafers being produced meet pre flood yields and performance.

I just can't see how this won't affect the HDD shipments and in turn PC shipments in the December quarter. I see "allocation" being the December quarter buzzword.

To play the situation, I've "stopped" out of my position in Maxtor with a profit, expecting them to be negatively impacted in December (assuming there isn't a Quantum/Maxtor deal concluded in the meantime) and bought a position in RDRT when I first heard about the problem.

For the past week, the HDD stocks have gone flat (but not down) and RDRT has made a nice profit, but I can't tell if its moving up because of the TDK problem or because of the optical stuff.

Regards,
LT
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