This chart shows Thursday through Wednesday.
bigcharts.com
The big gap created between Thursday & Friday did not get completely closed till after 2 pm Friday.
But look at the little gap between Thurs//Fri.... wayyyyy down there around 3630. That did not get filled until the final hour today. Here's a 10-day chart that shows it, as well...
bigcharts.com
So what does it mean?
1) All gaps are filled.
2) 3614 got retested, and held.
3) The NASDy has gone down 5 days in a row; tomorrow it ends higher.
4) Often, that 44 pt spike up, at the close, indicates a rise tomorrow
Which means...... I dunno.
Many stocks hit target lows today. How can they drop further? Maybe they can; maybe they can't. Maybe the market will run uphill; maybe my worst-case occurs, with it running downhill then rebounding.
Quite simply, I got beat today. My worst day this week. Many of my picks went down... the worst was CMTN. And I know dozens of unhappy campers.
But here's a fact: Friday is window-dressing day.... not just end of month but end of qtr. The fund mgrs will be dressing up their portfolios with the successful names, to show shareholders how smart they are.
Without a doubt, Friday is an up day. And Friday, esp, it's a time to buy leaders, not the beaten-downs.
Not only does this make Friday good, but it makes it certain that the market moves up into the close tomorrow.
As I noted, in my research of the past 18 months, the NASDy has never closed down 6 days in a row. But so many other patterns have been broken by the MMs this year that I hafta wonder whether they'll break this one, too, just to mess with folks.
Quick! Give me my anti-paranoia pill!
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One other indicator: NASDy has crossed 2 Billion trades, in volume, 6 times in the past 6 months. Only once was it a big down day. Once it was a big rise the day after April's bottom. The other four times were swing days, including last Friday.
Wednesday, we did NOT have 2B in trades. But after those 6 times we did, Wednesday ranks in the next 3 closest. The other two times? The final 2 days of March...
This volume indicates institutions are involved, probably selling.
It also indicates the mkt is sensing a climax near at hand.
In fact, Friday's volume was the highest of the year, with the exception of a handful of times in March & April....., and the rising volume this week means more drama ahead.
My best guess is we have NOT reached bottom. I HOPE tomorrow is the swing day, but in reality, it could happen from here till Tuesday.
Both Thursday and Friday SHOULD end higher, as should Monday-Tuesday.
Me and everyone else want it to happen now... get it over with. But the market manipulators know that, so....
I'm confused.
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Maybe I'll just sit on my hands.
Sighing softly & repeatedly, his bosom heaving, his head wracked with frustration and doubt, tune in tomorrow for the next episode....
Kevin
P.S. - If you've been very very good, the Easter Bunny Fairy Claus will fill your stocking. |
