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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (22494)9/28/2000 1:16:19 AM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
Don't count on it. I don't think that put-call of 0.7 last Friday was enough to produce a bottom, even with the Greenspan put in place. The significant bottoms this year all came with P/Cs of ~0.9. In prior years, that would have been >1.0, but I'm suspicious of a bottom with as little bearishness as we've observed even given the era of moral hazard.

Also, note that crash activity has always been associated with the break of what looked like a successful double-bottom. Friday was *supposed* to form a successful retest of the August low, but I'm suspicious that it may now be failing.

Lastly, and most importantly, I believe the Janus outflows rumors and that is the single most important factor here. Janus is the #1 fund company right now - and I don't know if you saw this in WSJ today or not - but they took in the vast majority of fund inflows this year! Their $35B dwarfed all other fund family inflows. Now that they are stinging from their reliance on tech, I expect those gargantuan inflows to reverse. And that is what finally turns the positive feedback the opposite direction. The same forces that produced a ridiculous overbought condition will now go to work producing an incredibly oversold condition, as the sheeple do what they do best: buy high, sell low...

BC
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