Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 304.08

+2.2%

Feb 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4695)	5/21/1997 1:40:00 PM
From: EACarl	of 70976

Cary, The numbers I used were from Zacks web site as of last night. Is there another place to get more up to date estimates? I believe 3.80 - 3.90 is the high end estimates not average estimates. As I said, and I do agree that the estimates will probably continue to rise. I agree with your analysis about AMAT's future, but we must also remember that even if 10$+ per share in earnings is achieved it will be the next cycle peak which means the stock will already be on the way down again, albeit from a significantly higher level. We can't expect to see a PE of 20 or more times those next cycle peak earnings of 10$+ per share, of course even a PE of 15 times 10$ = a stock price of 150$ (I know you consider that a conservative projection). I use the PE 15 because thats all we got based on last cycles peak earnings of ~4$ (4$/share times PE 15 = last peak stock price of ~60$). As far as the SI Threads promoting trading, I feel it has the opposite effect on me. I tend to pay attention more to what the longer term posters are saying. Also accummulating all the information posted here gives me a better understanding of my investments and thus greater confidence in holding them. On another note: I recently added both EGLS and SVGI to my portfolio, hope that they work out as well as AMAT and NVLS! They do seem much cheaper now if you look at the long term potential. As always, thanks for your experienced perspective on this sector, I do value it greatly. Eric.

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