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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Boplicity who wrote (4078)	9/28/2000 2:35:35 AM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (3) of 65232

Greg at times like this you have to ask yourself.. 1. Do the analysts have any market research numbers to back up their 'slowing down of demand' claims? On the flip side of that. What does JDSU/SDLI, NT and the others have to say about the issue? Are they ramping down their production or ramping up as fast as possible? Keeping in mind that JDSU/NT etc.. live and die by their projections of the future and they are far more 'hooked' into what their customers are saying than we are. 2. Will companies lose this battle? (yes) Are you backing one of the possible 'losers' or are you backing companies that are becoming the kings of the tornado? (yes) If your answer is the later then your only question/worry is.. a) is the tornado slowing (see point #1) or b) has some other technology replaced fiber optics? (no) Are some of these companies over valued? Absolutely. NTAP and SEBL (different sectors for sure) are examples of that. Will they go up from here? You bet. Is NT and JDSU over valued? JDSU is a tough one to answer. NT I don't think so. NT uses far more conservative accounting practices than her American cousins (read Cisco here). Even then her forward projected earnings look very, very good. Greg.. these companies and the the fiber optic market doesn't worry me. Now the stock market itself and the emotional impact this year has had on folks does concern me a bit. Greg - my take on the market is this. I see a market that WANTS TO GO UP (!) but is scared to death and bails at the first hint of down draft. As 'V' says.. it's all psychology at this point.

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