Mike:
The only difference between what you said, and what I believe, is our view of,
"analysts." I'm sure you were
just using the term loosely. Anyway I find quite a few, "analysts," that know the
technology and the stats. In
spite of the WS telecom bashing, I can seek out and read quite a few in-depth
and detailed reports quite the
opposite of what is being spinned by the media.
Yes, you are right- a good analyst is quite valuable, and I can see why it looks like I
was taking a cheap shot to fill out a humorous comment. I too find a number of
analysts- if you know their name, reputation, and history- are very good indeed, even
better than Silicon Investor Posters, if you can imagine that (oh my, another cheap
shot!).
There should be a rating service for these guys. My modest proposal is a scale from
one to ten, and deliberately non-linear:
10: predicts the behavior of a stock two years or more in advance
9: predicts the behavior of a stock 12 months in advance
8: predicts the behavior of a stock 9 months in advance
7: predicts the behavior of a stock 6 months in advance
6: predicts the behavior of a stock one quarter in advance
5: predicts the behavior of a stock one month in advance
4: predicts the behavior of a stock 2 weeks in advance
3: predicts the behavior of a stock 1 week in advance
2: predicts the behavior of a stock one day in advance
1: predicts the behavior of a stock one day after market news
0: predicts the behavior of a stock one or more days after market news and gets it
wrong
I wonder if there is an existing rating on the analysts, or at least a SI thread on it.
On the other hand, I've heard statements like, "85% of all news is leaked". While this
may be a justification for technical analysis and their "astrolgistic" gyrations, it is not
fair to us poor posters who have to think in advance based on our remote view of
technology and management skills. I've been told that Analysts have access to
information we don't have (surprise!) and they know the quarterly sales figures to
within 1%, days before the public announcement. I am not impressed with this- you
only need to know how to dial a phone and say "I'm from Goldman" to do that job.
This may be cynical, I suppose, but I still think I most respect the analysts who state their favorite stocks one year or more in advance.
Paul Johnson, "Robertson Stephens Senior Communications/Networking analyst", is
one person I have a lot of time for, and whose comments have a longer view than
many. Here is a recent interview.
internetstocks.com
Any other favorites? |
