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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: justone who wrote (8640)	9/28/2000 10:02:57 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (5) of 12823

"Johnson: We believe DSL promises the fastest unit growth in the access market. The independent leaders there include Copper Mountain (CMTN $68-1/4) and Paradyne (PDYN $25-9/16) in the core carrier market. Efficient Networks (EFNT $57-5/8) focuses on the customer premises. We believe DSL will migrate farther into the customer premises, i.e., large residential and office buildings with higher volume per location. There’s some controversy related to pricing and the perception that the differentiation among the products is fairly low, but we are very bullish because we believe that the unit volume is likely to be so great, that’s what will drive the opportunity." justone- Thanks for that interesting overview of the entire telecommunications sector. I thought the above comments were quite interesting. The DSL space is huge as Johnson believes but it's incredibly cut-throat. His PDYN recommendation has just warned and has taken a HUGE hit. Today it's down 45% alone! It's 52 week high was $53. Today you can buy it for $6. Ouch. Copper Mountain 52 week high was $126. This AM you could have bought them for $36. I'm not saying anything about his picks because a LOT of DSL equipment specialist have gone totally in the toilet. Orckit is another. Westell is another. Efficient is another...the list goes on and on. The DSL pure plays seem to have the most trouble. Orckit just gave up on a very large Deutshe Telekom DSL contract because they could not make any money on it. ECI Telecom(sym:ECIL) and Siemens picked it up. ECIL is not a pure play in DSL so I'm wondering how it will do with the contract. Also, wonder what will happen to the silicon providers to these companies? The silicon providers have held up much, much better. Do you have any insight into what you may think will happen to them as a whole. Or even individually? Overall what this tells me is the difficulty a equipment company faces trying to compete for business in the cheap, cheap, incumbent twisted copper pair world. That's all the more reason I think the twisted pair world is loathe to give up any legacy hardware and/or networks until it is absolutely, 100%, forced to. -MikeM(From Florida)

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