Claude / POU
Debt is 1.8x cash flow. Stock was probably hurt by the AEUB decision to shut in gas production at Surmount (sp?), which was about 10% of POU's production. The regulator decided that heavy oil production there was more important, and that producing the gas cap would reduce heavy extraction. Compensation has yet to be decided on that one, but I think it is a safe bet that POU will indeed get reasonable compensation.
Also, production growth has not been what was expected. Part of that is the above, part was wet weather preventing tie ins. But this issue should be a focus for your DD - I can't tell you that I know for sure how much was exogenous factors that merely affect timing, and how much was genuine exploration disappointments.
I established the position to get a bit of upside from California, with the downside protection offered by an experienced management team and a well-established production base. Obviously it hasn't worked out exactly as I wanted, but then what ever does? IMO, at these levels POU is worth spending the research time on.
I don't know of a solid junior that meets your 65% gas criterion. In the under 5,000 boe/d club, the gassiest are SRT, IOI, and SGY, but I've never done any work an any of them.
One that I have followed (and presently own) is PSN, which is about 50% gas. There is talk about them being taken out; might be worth a look.
Good luck. |
