Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 240.35

-4.7%

11:24 AM EST

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To: AK2004 who wrote (10514)	9/28/2000 12:57:35 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Albert, <We believe AMD's average speed distribution, at slightly over 800MHz, is currently running ahead of Intel's, which we figure is about 750MHz.> Since AMD starts Athlon line at 800MHz and that is the only part that ships at or over those speed grades, this number is high if one includes K6/Duron units and low if K6/Durons are excluded. The Intel 750 number is consistent with the data out there. <We figure AMD is producing on a quarterly run rate at least one million 1GHz-plus units currently, which is about 15% of output.> This is about 50% of Athlon run rate this quarter. The splits are dragged down by Fab25/Fab30 numbers. Dresden by my data is almost entirely at 1G+. Of course, since AMD hasn't quite entered the commercial sector, this does not necessarily mean 1M 1GHz+ shipments. <Unit demand remains very strong, and the company actually raised contract prices slightly this quarter and may do so again in Q4. > Quite nice to see those ASPs tick up! Now, how the heck does this guy comeup with meeting processor unit expectations, higher flash prices and lower costs (going from Athlon classic to Thunderbird) and come up with only $1.25 (i.e., $0.62 split adjusted) earnings for Q3? What kind of assumptions is he making? Or, is he confusing pre-split data with post-split data in his spreadsheets? Does someone here have access to Jonathan Joseph and get him to answer the questions? Chuck

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