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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob
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To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)9/28/2000 1:03:13 PM
From: the-phoenix  Read Replies (4) of 100058
 
Hi, Dr. Bob - Thank you for your request for input from Lurkers, as I have not posted much (too busy!) I haven't posted since the end of August when I gave my outlook for a short-term correction in September. I don't have any favorite stocks, but my short term outlook now is for a 50/50 chance of filling the gap down at 3250 within a couple of weeks before we mark the price/timing bottom of this bear market. This forecast is based mainly on fibonacci ratios and my interpretation of a double top which was confirmed with the move below the 3700 area, suggesting a downside target of about 3150. Regardless of the Nasdaq, I think CSCO will almost certainly hit 50 again within 1-2 weeks, and as such offers a 10%-15% shorting opportunity - thus a "favorite stock" pick. This is based on a very clear triple top pattern in this stock's chart. Once this window-dressing rally is over in a day or so, we should see the selling pressure return at least until pre-earnings warning season is over. The failure of the big-cap techs to move up much during this rally, coupled with some broadening out in the A/D stats makes sense to me when you think of which issues the big boys needed to unload and what they want to be able to say they had in their portfolios during the third quarter. Big caps were not the poster children for the 3Q mutual fund reports, obviously! Biotech should do very well today and tomorrow.

The Phoenix
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